Commentary

The prediction by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) that the United States is headed into another recession was greeted by a rise in the stock market from 1,074 on the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index on Tuesday, October 4, to 1,238 on Friday, October 21, a gain of 15 percent in just 13 days.

While high unemployment persists and the U.S. economy remains stubbornly flat, Washington, D.C. now hails as the nation’s wealthiest metropolitan area, according to new data from the Census Bureau. Dethroning Silicon Valley from its royal chair, the hometown of Congress and the White House is flourishing, as the median household income for Washington residents stood at $84,523 in 2010, when the nation’s average household income was $50,046. The data shows that San Jose, home of Apple and Cisco Systems, held an average income of $83,944 in 2010, falling from $84,483 in 2009, and now riding on the coattails of America’s political stronghold.

resumeWith the announcement from Gallup that the unemployment rate had dropped precipitously in early October to 8.3 percent came the disclaimer that they could be wrong. Chief Economist Dennis Jacobe wrote that “the sharp drop in Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment rates may partly result from seasonal factors. Halloween has become the third-largest sales season for many retailers, who are likely increasing their staffing accordingly. In addition, some stores may have been minimally staffed and are beginning early to add employees for the holidays.”  But it also “means it could be something of an aberration that will dissipate during the weeks ahead ... but for now, this job market improvement appears real.”

The press release from the Boston Consulting Group signaled the beginning of the American renaissance in manufacturing as cost advantages of China are fading rapidly and companies are beginning to repatriate their jobs back home. There are seven industrial sectors that could create two to three million jobs over the next five years as American manufacturers do the new math. As explained by Harold Sirkin, one of the three authors of Made in American, Again: "A surprising amount of work that rushed to China over the past decade could soon start to come back — and the economic impact could be significant. We’re on record predicting a U.S. manufacturing renaissance starting by around 2015."

On September 30, the Economic Cycle Research Institute announced that the U.S. economy officially entered a new recession. On the following Tuesday, October 4, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index dropped to 1,074.77, the lowest level of the year.

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