Recent public opinion polls are exhibiting a trend that Democrats ought to find disturbing. For the first time since 2008, more voters would pick a Republican candidate in the 2010 elections than would pick a Democrat. More independents would favor the Republican candidate in their districts over the Democratic candidate. More voters would advise their representative to vote against a healthcare bill than to vote for it. And more voters strongly disapprove of President Barack Obama’s performance than strongly approve.

A Gallup poll posted on November 11 asked registered voters if they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate if the 2010 elections were being held today. In July of this year, 50 percent would have voted Democratic, and 44 percent would have voted Republican. In November, the pendulum had swung to 44 percent Democratic and 48 percent Republican.

While self-identified Republicans and Democrats are, as usual, backing their party of choice,  independents have begun a mass exodus from the Democratic camp. According to Gallup, 52 percent of independents would currently favor the Republican candidate in 2010 versus 30 percent favoring the Democratic candidate.

As Gallup put it, “Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown, from a 1-point advantage in July to the current 22-point gap.” At this rate, independents could soon be favoring Republican candidates by a two-to-one margin.

Gallup analyzed the figures as follows: “The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today. Though the registered-voter results reported here speak to the preferences of all eligible voters, voter turnout is crucial in determining the final outcome of midterm elections. Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim.”

Prospects for the passage of current healthcare reform proposals would appear slim if representatives actually listened to their constituents. For poll results posted November 9, Gallup chose the title “No Clear Mandate From Americans on Healthcare Reform.” This is because, while 41 percent of voters think current healthcare legislation would make America’s healthcare system better, 40 percent think it would make things worse. One percent does not a mandate make.

Even more revealing, when voters were asked if they would advise their representative to vote for or against the current reform measures, 38 percent would say to vote against, with only 29 percent saying to vote for it. If undecided voters are asked to express which way they lean, the margin is closer, but the percent against goes even higher: 48 percent against versus 43 percent for.

The bottom line, as Gallup sees it, is this: “The debate over new healthcare legislation now shifts to the Senate, at a time when the majority of Americans are not convinced that a new law would benefit either the national healthcare system or their own personal healthcare situations in the long term. The overall advice from the average American to his or her member of Congress at this point tilts negative, although about a third of Americans initially say they have no opinion on the legislation.”

The negativity extends to President Obama’s performance in office. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for November 12 shows that “29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President,” but “38% Strongly Disapprove.” This gives Obama “a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9.”

Rasmussen also reports the following: “Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the economy while 45% give him poor marks. On national security issues, the numbers are 42% good or excellent and 39% poor.” The tracking poll shows that, “Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.” One wonders why Rasmussen did not include those who “at least somewhat” disapprove of the President’s performance; that would have made the 52 percent even higher.

All in all, the trend of public opinion ought to serve as a wake-up call to both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats ought to see the error of their ways and realize that the people they represent don’t want Washington imposing massive changes on the U.S. healthcare system, taking over private sector businesses, or lavishly spending taxpayer money when the national debt is already out of control.

Republicans must realize they need to solidly favor smaller government, less federal intervention, less federal spending, getting the nation out of debt, ending our foreign wars, and closely adhering to the Constitution if they want to win election in 2010 and remain in office for the long term.

The sleeping giant of the American electorate is rousing from its slumber and getting ready to swat small-minded, big-government politicians out of office in 2010 — the day cannot come too soon.

Photo: AP Images

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Flu-Bird said:

Too bad dems Back last year these liberal were predicting a end to the GOP but now looks whats happened the demacrats are suffering a backlash from the public and with in a year we hope to see OBAMA lose a lot of his supporters

November 13, 2009

Bonnie said:

... With the Democrats, we are skiing downhill, picking up speed, and veering left at all the pylons. By voting in the Republicans (didn't we try that one before?), we will continue to ski downhill, continue to increase speed, but will instead be veering right at the pylons. The destination (bottom of the hill) remains unchanged. I'd just as soon be heading back up to the top of the hill! There are a lot of independents out there... they need to start voting that way... for constitutional independents and forget all this Demoplican-Republicrat, good cop-bad cop crap.

November 13, 2009

Paul Revere said:

RFID Micro-Chip Found In Health Care Bill! Look at what is hidden in the over 1000 page Health-Care Bill that the majority of American people did not want! Buried deep within the over 1,000 pages of the massive US Health Care Bill (PDF) in a “non-discussed” section titled: Subtitle C-11 Sec. 2521— National Medical Device Registry, and which states its purpose as: “The Secretary shall establish a national medical device registry (in this subsection referred to as the ‘registry’) to facilitate analysis of postmarket safety and outcomes data on each device that—‘‘(A) is or has been used in or on a patient; and ‘‘(B) is a class III device; or ‘‘(ii) a class II device that is implantable.” In “real world speak”, according to this report, this new law, when fully implemented, provides the framework for making the United States the first Nation in the World to require each and every one of its citizens to have implanted in them a radio-frequency identification (RFID) microchip for the purpose of controlling who is, or isn’t, allowed medical care in their country. http://waysandmeans.house… This is very dangerous: Everyone needs to sit down and see this video that shows just how corrupt our American and English Government and Governments around the world have become, if only in order to prepare for the damage they are doing to our country's monetary and resource systems, that will affect you and all of us and our lifestyles! Give yourself the chance to be prepared by looking ahead! Here is the link:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU

November 13, 2009

Charles Byrd said:

No Surprise. I didn't vote for Obama, most of my friends didn't vote for him and those who did are kicking themselves.......HARD!

November 13, 2009

Ellen Brandt, Ph.D. said:

New Group for Centrists Your readers might be interested in knowing that I have formed a brand-new Centrists Group at Linked In. Centrist Republicans, Centrist Democrats, and Centrist Independents are all welcome. But Flamers, ranters and ravers, script bots, and clandestine political operatives are not! We believe that Americans, particularly my own extremely disaffected Baby Boom generation, aged 46-63 in 2009, are moving fast towards the Center, no matter our party affiliation or lack thereof. If you're interested in what Boomers are thinking right now, please take a look at my popular new series, Baby Boomers-The Angriest Generation. Here's the latest Index http://wp.me/pxD3J-2a And if you're at Linked In, please consider joining the new Centrists Group. I think we're going to become a source of important information in the months and years ahead. Contact me there for an invitation. Thank you. Ellen Brandt, Ph.D.

November 13, 2009 | url

Michelle said:

... What really gives me the creeps is that none of the MSN mention the fact that Obama has historic lows for a new President. He campaigned as Reagan and quickly morphed into Chavez. Even the Republicans are mute. I guess trillions of dollars can buy anything. I once thought that only in Latin America could the media be bought and paid for. This is like Deja Vu for me and I have one foot out the door.

November 15, 2009