More Ukraine Aid, Less War in Iran: Europe’s Hopes After U.S. Midterms

When the balance of power in Washington shifts, it raises a big question abroad: How does that affect America’s wars?

Republicans and Democrats have for decades largely agreed on an aggressive interventionist foreign policy. But elections still have some implications.

Elected Officials Don’t Drive Foreign Policy

The Atlantic published an article last month confirming that the executive and legislative branches are not in charge of the Ukraine war. “The CIA is in the lead,” an anonymous source confirmed. The article also reinforces the suspicion that the agency is fueling operations against Russia that are more aggressive than the ones it was orchestrating during Joe Biden’s administration. A good example is Ukraine’s success in hitting targets deep within Russia. Former CIA employee Larry Johnson said the article is easily recognizable as something placed in the magazine by friends of the agency.

It’s no secret that the U.S. never stopped providing intel and communications technology to Ukraine. Moreover, Donald Trump’s administration hasn’t completely halted the weapons deliveries signed off on by the Biden administration.

But the White House is not totally without influence. Trump didn’t go as far as many of his 2024 voters wanted (perhaps he couldn’t). Voters wanted an end to all involvement in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Trump halted the blank checks the previous Congress and administration had made a habit of writing to Ukraine. He also opened the lines of communication with Moscow, whereas the people running the Biden regime only talked to Ukrainian leaders. And someone, somewhere, even pushed pause for a wee moment on the Starlink communications network vital to Ukraine’s operations. Since Trump hasn’t been as aggressive toward Russia as the Deep State, “the administration’s policy is deeply conflicted,” notes The Atlantic.

So it’s clear that while elected officials are not the primary drivers of U.S. foreign policy (even though they should be), elections still have consequences in this respect.

Ukraine, Russia Respond to Elections

The folks at the Kyiv Independent made no effort to conceal their glee of self-interest, publishing news of the midterm results under the headline “Democrats seize control of Congress in blow to Trump, potential boost for Ukraine.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that he likes the Democrats better because they’re more generous with the money and weapons of the American people. He said after the elections:

I am also grateful to the Republicans, but the Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine. They speak about renewing the connection between the United States and Europe… Therefore, there is hope that a balance of power will emerge and that we will receive more support. If Congress now speaks of strong financial support or military assistance, as Europe is doing and demonstrating today, then that will be something positive that will have an impact on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.

The Russians were less thrilled. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, “The approach of the activist wing of the Democratic Party towards Russia is extremely negative. There’s nothing new in that.”

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov was cautiously ambivalent, saying, “President Trump remains in office. We sincerely hope that he will continue his peacemaking efforts.”

Eurocrats

As far as the Eurocrats are concerned, they’re hoping the incoming Democratic Congress will breathe more life into their Ukraine war project. European Parliament Vice President Christel Schaldemose said in an X post:

Wild result in the USA last night! I’m cautiously optimistic on Europe’s behalf. Not because everything now changes for the better, but because it could benefit the support for Ukraine, the green transition, and relations with the rest of the world.

European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas seconded Schaldemose:

I hope that the new Congress and the new Senate will continue supporting Ukraine and also putting more pressure on Russia.

German officials would also like to see more American fuel on the Ukraine dumpster fire. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul hopes for “more discussions in Congress, including between both parties, about what can be done together to support Ukraine.” Chancellor Friedrich Merz, however, has little confidence anything will change. According to media site WSIU, Merz “said he thinks little will change. Trump has mostly governed without involving Congress since returning to the White House in 2025, and is likely to continue to do so, [he] said in Berlin.”

Members of Germany’s rising nationalistic party, the AfD, tied the Trump administration’s meddlesome foreign intervention to Tuesday’s trouncing. AfD co-founder Alice Weidel said:

Trump had promised his voters not to pursue an interventionist ​foreign policy… This broken promise has now come back to haunt the Republicans.

Wanting the Iran War to End

Comments by the prime minister of the Czech Republic were unique among those of other European leaders in that he expressed hope for an end to both major wars. Said Andrej Babis:

In my view, this means that until the end of President Trump’s term, it will be all about impeachment and vetoes, and a certain kind of paralysis. On the other hand, President Trump will almost certainly continue to do exactly as he pleases. Let’s hope he finally returns to his promise to end the war in Ukraine and resolve the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who’s been bullish on support for Ukraine war, lacks similar interest in the Iran war:

I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all — and that’s the cost-of-living. That has been the issue that I have put front and centre in my first three months in Downing Street, and we’ve made moves, but I can’t get people’s cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan also wants the Iran war to end:

Our biggest ⁠hope ‌is ⁠that the election results contribute to lasting ​peace and stability in ‌our region. We will continue to be in close dialogue with ​both the US Administration and ‌the House of Representatives ​and Senate with that goal.

Jordan Bardella, the president of France’s nationalistic National Rally party, like the folks in the AfD, took a shot at Trump’s broken foreign policy promises:

What is certain is that Donald Trump’s second term differs quite significantly, in its philosophy and foreign policy, from his first, during which his political ambition was to withdraw the United States from major global conflicts. As it happens, American intervention regarding Iran carries very heavy consequences, not only for the US economy, in my view, but also for the European economy, particularly concerning the purchasing power of our own citizens, given the rise in oil prices.

In Israel, Yair Golan, head of the country’s leftist opposition Democrats party, said the election results “reveal just how toxic [Benjamin] Netanyahu is among both Democrats and Republicans.”

The man who is on path to replace Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, issued a long statement, which says in part:

The bond between Israel and the United States is more than an alliance between governments. It is a partnership between peoples, built over generations, sustained by shared democratic values, and strengthened by the conviction that our nations are more secure and more prosperous when we stand together. Under my leadership, we will renew and deepen that partnership, strengthen the bipartisan foundations that have long sustained it, and work with our allies to advance a Middle East defined not simply by the absence of conflict, but by the presence of opportunity and cooperation.

As for the Iranians, they pointed out the obvious, in the words of Vice President JD Vance. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf included a warning with his observation, writing on X:

Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message. If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.