A report released this month by the U.S. Joint Forces Command is warning of the potential for “rapid and sudden collapse” of the Mexican government due to the corrupting influence of criminal gangs and drug cartels. The Joint Operating Environment 2008 document (pdf) also lists Pakistan as the other of two large and important states that “bear consideration,” explaining that these would be “worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world."

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely [than the possibility that Pakistan's government collapsing], but the [Mexican] government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels,” the report explains. “How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”

Michael Hayden, the retiring head of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, also expressed concern over the situation in Mexico, telling reporters that it could rank alongside Iran, and possibly be even worse than Iraq, in terms of the problems to be dealt with by incoming President Barack Obama.

The U.S. Justice Department pointed to Mexican gangs as the “biggest organized crime threat to the United States,” with National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley saying that the increasing violence south of the border threatens Mexico’s “very democracy.”

Former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey also warned that “Mexico is on the edge of the abyss — it could become a narco-state in the coming decade.” He added: “Mexican law enforcement and soldiers face heavily armed drug gangs with high-powered military automatic weapons” and noted that he believed the United States should do more to help the beleaguered government.

Even former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has commented on the situation, saying: “We have to rethink our entire strategy for working with Mexico. The war that’s under way in Mexico is an enormous national security threat to the U.S. If we allow the drug dealers to win we will have a nightmare on our southern border and no amount of fence and no amount of national security would compensate for the collapse of Mexico." Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff has also announced plans for a “surge” on the border region, along with Mexico’s 45,000 soldiers already working to combat the escalating violence

Last year there were over 5,000 murders related to the drug cartels, more than double the amount from 2007, with some estimates placing the figure even higher. The gangs are also becoming increasingly brazen, routinely murdering members of the police and military, and even decapitating soldiers in some cases. Most of the violence is concentrated in Mexico's northern states and cities, but it is indeed a nationwide problem.

The U.S. Joint Forces Command report noted: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.” It also said: “In particular, the growing assault by the drug cartels and their thugs on the Mexican government over the past several years reminds one that an unstable Mexico could represent a homeland security problem of immense proportions to the United States.” The document was a broad outline of various predictions regarding future global threats to America, and it also included speculation relating to American demographics.  It forecasted that by 2030, the U.S. population will grow by more than 50 million people, many of whom will come from continued immigration from Mexico. According to the report, “at least 15% of the population of every state will be Hispanic in origin, in some states reaching upwards of 50%.” The report said that how well these immigrants assimilate will play a major role in America’s prospects.

Mexico’s government has so far blasted the U.S. concerns, with Secretary of the Interior Fernando Gomez-Mont saying: “It seems inappropriate to me that you would call Mexico a security risk. There are problems in Mexico that are being dealt with, that we can continue to deal with, and that's what we are doing." Mexican President Felipe Calderon recently met with Obama, and the incoming American president agreed to help stop guns from flowing into Mexico from the United States. He also pledged to cooperate in helping Mexico’s government further, even though it recently received $400 million to help fight drugs already.

Of course, with the corruption that exists in the Mexican government including its military and police bracnches, $400 miilion in U.S. aid to fight the Mexican drug cartels does not mean that the money was well spent for that purpose.

Photo: AP Images

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Richard Robinson said:

	Merging Do you think the US will just annex Mexico now?
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January 19, 2009
Votes: -1

WindUp said:

	... How about the other way around?
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January 20, 2009
Votes: -2

Josh Silberman said:

... The easiest way to stop these sorts of problems is ending the drug war. Not only is it unconstitutional and immoral, it enriches criminals and criminalizes otherwise lawabiding folks. We especially should NOT be giving money to other countries so they can fight their own drug wars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is so absurd!!!If I own myself than I can put whatever I want in myself up to and including poison if I dont violate anybody elses rights!

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January 21, 2009
Votes: +2

mike said:

	... just think the government could actually make money by taxing drugs and stop waisting billions to fight them. people do them anyway, they might as well make it safer to obtain.
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January 23, 2009
Votes: +4

us_and _them said:

	never see legalization you will never see legalization as long as big corporations such as ones that build and maintain prisons keep lobbying and paying off our representitives
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January 23, 2009
Votes: +2

Josh Silberman said:

	never see legalization ... in reference to the guy above mes comments, I agree, and as long as the CIA and other intelligence agencies continue profiting from importation of drugs to fund the overthrow of foreign governments and enrich their elite masters... See Mena, Arkansas and the Clinton connection!
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January 24, 2009
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Delyon Getty said:

	... Surely the question should be 'Why does the United States insist on drugging itself to stupor with drugs coming from Mexico?'
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February 14, 2009
Votes: +2