Thursday, 17 June 2010

Obama at New -20 Low Poll Approval

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Rasmussen reported June 16 that its Daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that twenty-four percent of the nation’s voters “Approve” of how Barack Obama is performing as President. Those who “Strongly Disapprove” showed at forty-four percent. This leaves him with an “Approval Index” of -20.

These results are based upon telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night, and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Says the Rasmussen June 16 report, “As a result, today’s results are based almost entirely on interviews conducted before the president’s speech to the nation. The impact of the president’s speech will be seen over the next several days.” The site went on to say:

Overall, forty-two (42%) of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. That’s the lowest level of approval yet recorded for this president. Fifty-seven percent (57%) now disapprove. Those are the lowest ratings yet recorded for this president. The president’s approval rating has held steady in the forty-six/seven percent (46% - 47%) range for six months and it remains to be seen whether this new low is merely statistical noise or the start of a lasting change.…The margin of sampling error — for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters — is +/- 3 percentage points with a ninety-five percent (95%) level of confidence.

In addition, forty-eight percent of Democrats Strongly Approve the President’s job performance, while seventy-five percent of Republicans Strongly Disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, twelve percent Strongly Approve and fifty-two percent Strongly Disapprove.

With regards to handling the Gulf oil spill, thirty percent of voters gave President Obama good or excellent marks while forty-five percent said he was doing a poor job. At fifty-seven percent, most voters surveyed still favor offshore oil drilling. On another topic, fifty-three percent continued to feel that the bailout of General Motors and Chrysler was not a good idea.

A recent addition to Rasmussen polling, the “Rasmussen Reports Media Meter,” shows a forty-one percent positive result in media coverage of the President over the past week. Coverage has ranged from a high of sixty percent positive since the passage of the healthcare law, to a low of 39% positive.

While some polling firms base their approval ratings on “adults” surveyed, Rasmussen bases results upon a sample of “likely voters.” This is why President Obama always has higher numbers with “adults” being surveyed rather than “voters,” as some of his strongest supporters are young adults who are less likely to actually vote. The phrasing of the questions asked in approval ratings also varies from firm to firm and affects the voting outcome. Automated telephone polling, of which Rasmussen was among the pioneers, also matters. It is considered more reliable than operated-assisted polling and adds to the Rasmussen reputation for fairness and accuracy.

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