Thursday, 13 June 2019

Poll: Biden Has “Landslide” Lead Over Trump. The Polls Showed Likewise for Clinton

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The latest voter survey from Quinnipiac University shows that former Vice President Joe Biden would defeat President Trump by “landslide proportions” if the election were held now.

The polls might show that. And they might also show that others in the crowded field of Democrat presidential contenders would defeat Trump.

Problem is, the election is well more than a year away, and the polls showed the same thing when the Democratic candidate was Hillary Clinton.

In other words, Trump needn’t worry.

The Data
The Quinnipiac poll put Biden ahead of Trump 53-40, a 13-point margin that tops the lead other Democrats have. The poll gives communist apologist Bernie Sanders a nine-point 51-42 lead, while pot partisan Kamala Harris defeats him by eight points, 49-41. Fake Indian Elizabeth Warren is ahead by seven, 49-42.

Even South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg beat Trump by five points, 47-42.

Said Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac’s assistant director, “It’s a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions.”

Then again, the pollsters also found that Trump has a 42-percent job approval rating, which “is nothing to sniff at,” Malloy said. “It’s one point shy of the best Quinnipiac University survey number ever for President Trump.”

Quinnipiac’s data are consistent with most of those tracked on the Real Clear Politics Average. A Fox News poll of May 11-14 has Biden defeating Trump by 11 points, 49-38, while an Emerson Poll at about the same time has Biden up by eight, 54-46.

Polls from CNN, Hill/Harris X, and Politico/Morning Consult show similar results.

Quinnipiac’s pollsters spoke to 1,124 voters, including 503 Democrats or Democratic “leaners,” meaning nearly half their sample were voters who aren’t likely to vote for Trump.

Clinton Was Ahead Too
Problem is, polls this far out from the election are meaningless. They don’t prove much. The “landslide” numbers for Hillary Cilnton’s far exceeded those Biden is getting now.

For instance, a Quinnipiac poll in May 2015 put Clinton ahead of Trump by 18 points, 50-32. A Fox News poll followed in June that gave Clinton a 17-point margin, 51-34.

Clinton crushed Trump in a CNN/Opinion Research poll of 890 voters, 59-35, a 24-point “landslide” margin that was her largest.

Of more than 300 polls conducted between May 2015 and Election Day 2016, Clinton bested Trump in 85 percent of them.

The final RCP result accurately predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote, yet Trump won the election with 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232, which means that polling data are only accurate insofar as they measure voter sentiments, not how the votes breakdown by state, which is what matters.

AOC’s Endorsement
Nor will the polling data, it seems, affect endorsements, particularly given that hard-left crackpots have taken over the party. The Los Angeles Times offered a story that demonstrates just how far gone the party is, which won’t help its chances of dethroning Trump.

Two Democratic contenders, the newspaper reported, are fighting over the endorsement of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Though the young congresswoman is in many ways a thoroughgoing idiot, Sanders, the communist apologist, and Warren, known as Liawatha, want her endorsement.

Reported the Times:

Warren fans wonder whether — and hope that — Ocasio-Cortez may eventually endorse the Massachusetts senator in her bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

But the freshman House member, a superstar of the progressive movement, has more history with Warren’s leading rival for progressive votes in the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. They too have teamed up on many legislative and political matters. Many Democrats find it hard to imagine Ocasio-Cortez will not eventually back Sanders, as she did in 2016.

The fact that a 29-year-old freshman House member is being sought out by two presidential candidates with years of congressional seniority who are more than twice her age speaks volumes about the state of the Democratic Party and the dynamics of its primary process.

Ocasio-Cortez embodies a younger generation of Democrats led by women and people of color — a progressive voting bloc that brings intense passion to the fight to oust President Trump. She also has a gift for creating social media sensations that old-school Democrats can only dream of.

“I would argue that she is one of the most important endorsements in the Democratic Party right now,” said Rebecca Katz, a strategist who used to work for former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “She has a huge reach beyond any other member of Congress. She knows how to use her voice.”

The Times is right about one thing. That Democrats are giving an economic illiterate such a measure of control “speaks volumes” about the party. It has gone ’round the bend.

Photo: AP Images

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