Elizabeth Warren couldn’t successfully claim American Indian identity. But she has claimed a statistical tie for first place in the 2020 Democratic nomination race with front-runner Joe Biden in a new national poll.
As the Washington Examiner reports, “The Massachusetts senator trailed Biden by just one point in the Economist-YouGov poll conducted from Aug. 10-13. Biden brought in 21% nationally compared to Warren who garnered 20% support, with a 2.6% margin of error."
“Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came in third, clocking in at 16% support among voters,” the site continued. “No other candidate polled in the double digits, with Sen. Kamala Harris of California registering 8%. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg both received 5% support in the poll.”
As for who’s getting behind whom, the New York Post reports that “Biden’s support is strongest among blacks (38 percent) and among voters age 65 and older (27 percent) and women (25 percent).”
“Warren’s main backers are white voters (25 percent), people 18 to 29 (22 percent) and males (20 percent).”
“Nineteen percent of female voters opt for Warren as well,” the paper continued. “Sanders’ highest level of support comes from the 18-29 age group with 23 percent.” Below are the full relevant YouGov poll results:
National Democratic Primary:— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 14, 2019
Biden 21 (-1 in a week)
Warren 20 (+4)
Sanders 16 (+3)
Harris 8 (-)
O'Rourke 5 (+3)
Buttigieg 5 (-3)
Booker 2 (+1)
Gabbard 2 (-1)
Yang 1@TheEconomist /@YouGov https://t.co/WbnJkHHkG7
Moreover, when asking the question “Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020?” YouGov found (page 128 in report) that Warren was cited by 50 percent of respondents versus only 47 percent for Biden. (Hill video on the poll’s results below.)
All this said, Biden still enjoys a commanding lead in the RealClear Politics polling average, which covers the period from 8/1 to 8/13; it shows him to have 30.4 percent support to Sanders 17.2 percent and Warren’s 16.8 percent.
On the other hand, as Mediaite correctly points out, “National polls give a broad indication of the shared sentiment across states, but … they are less important at this stage than specific swing state polls.” As to this, Biden enjoys a lead in every state for which RealClear Politics provides data. The margins are, expressed as percentages: Iowa, 9.0; New Hampshire, 2.5; Nevada, 14.5; South Carolina, 23.7; California, 2.3; Texas, 10.2; and Massachusetts, 6.5.
Sanders is in second place in four of those States, while Warren, Irish Bob (“Beto”) O’Rourke (D-Texas), and Senator Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) hold that position in, respectively, Iowa, Texas, and California.
In reality, though, the real story here may not be how Warren is nipping at Biden’s heels, but that he has held on as long as he has. The former vice president is a perpetual gaffe machine, continually making serious mistakes, and the problem has only worsened with age. Just last Thursday he uttered a Freudian slip before an Iowa crowd, saying that “poor kids are just as bright and talented as white kids” (video below). He also recently misidentified the locations of recent mass shootings.
Warren enjoys advantages unrelated to Biden’s bumbling. I said on a radio show approximately a year ago that, unlike Hillary Clinton, Warren is an effective demagogue; she exhibits genuine passion (misguided though it is) and possesses some charisma, whereas Clinton does not. Other advantages of hers, however, have nothing to do with candidates’ relative capabilities.
As the Stamford Advocate wrote in June, at “a moment when many Democrats are demanding greater diversity and fresher faces, Warren may have an edge as a woman and a first-time presidential candidate.”
Actually, you can forget “may.” The Left has long been preaching “white privilege” and impugning “dead white males” (such as the Founders), and it isn’t fond of almost-dead white ones, either. Polls have evidenced this anti-white antipathy, too, as related in recent headlines.
“Democrats Don’t Want to Nominate a Candidate Who Looks Like Bernie or Joe,” wrote Politico May 24.
A day earlier, the Washington Post warned, “If 2020 comes down to turnout, a white male Democratic nominee might be a problem for his party.”
Then there was “Should a White Man Be the Face of the Democratic Party in 2020?” the month before from the New York Times.
Moreover, leftists like old white men least of all, and Biden will have turned 78 by inauguration day 2020, which would easily make him the oldest individual ever elected president. He’s also more wizened than wise, proving, to his own detriment and the country’s (if he’s elected), the adage “Wisdom doesn’t always come with age; sometimes age just shows up all by itself.”
A bigger threat than unwise candidates, however, is unwise voters. If Americans will elect someone who aims to decriminalize illegal migration, offer free healthcare to illegals, and put boys in girls’ bathrooms, well, then what’s the real problem? The particular fool elevated to power — or the confederacy of fools who elevated him?