The biggest increase in the number of Muslims, Pew predicts, will occur in Canada, where the population of Mohammed’s followers will more than triple. In the United States, the number will more than double. In Europe, the number will increase by a third.
The increase will occur not only because of Muslim fecundity but also because of immigration, the latter a problem that has vexed Europe for decades and has inspired the rise of anti-immigration parties reacting to Muslim violence as well as demands for changes in European law rooted in the Christian understanding of man.
The United States
Pew reports a Muslim population in the United States of about 2.6 million in 2010, which will rise to 6.2 million by 2030. Between 1990 and 2010, Pew reports, the Muslim population increased in North America by about 91 percent, from 1.8 million to 3.5 million. The report does not include discrete figures for the past 20 years for the United States and Canada. Muslims will be nearly 2 percent and 6.6 percent of the populations of those respective countries by 2030. In 2010, the population of Muslims was 0.8 percent and 2.8 percent.
The Muslim population in the United States is projected to more than double in the next 20 years, from nearly 2.6 million in 2010 to about 6.2 million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims.
Within two decades, the United States is expected to have the 43rd largest Muslim population in the world (in absolute numbers), up from 55th place in 2010. By 2030, the U.S. is projected to have a larger number of Muslims than any European country other than Russia (which is expected to have 19 million Muslims by 2030) and France (which is expected to have 6.9 million Muslims in 2030). By comparison, the United Kingdom and Germany are each projected to have nearly 5.6 million Muslims in 2030.
By 2030, Muslims are expected to account for 1.7% of the total U.S. population, up from 0.8% in 2010. If current trends continue, Muslims may constitute as large a share of the U.S. population as either Jews or Episcopalians do today. The Pew Forum’s U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, conducted in 2007, found that Jews represented 1.7% of the adult population in the U.S., while Episcopalians (including Anglicans) accounted for 1.4%.
The number of Muslims in Canada is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, from about 940,000 in 2010 to about 2.7 million in 2030. Muslims account for a larger share of the general population in Canada than they do in the United States. By 2030, 6.6% of Canada’s population is projected to be Muslim, up from 2.8% in 2010. …
Of all the countries in the Americas, Canada and the U.S. are expected to have by far the largest percentage increases in the size of their Muslim populations, 183.1% and 139.5%, respectively.
Overall, the Muslim population in North America will increase about 151 percent, from about 3.5 million to 8.9 million. Disturbingly, that is much faster than the 91 percent rate of increase between 1990 and 2010, when the number of Muslims went from 1.8 million to 3.5 million.
As for the rest of the Americas, the Muslim population in Central and South America will grow by about 19 percent, from 1.7 million to about 2 million, a worrisome trend considering the problem of illegal immigration into the United States across the southern border with Mexico. In that country, the population of Muslims will increase by some 14 percent. Honduras will suffer the greatest increase of Muslims at nearly 40 percent.
The rate of Muslim increase in Central and South America will slow compared to the previous 20 years. From 1990 to 2010, the population increased about 76 percent, from some 1.1 million to 1.7 million.
Europe faces a seismic increase in the number of Muslims as well, with the population rising from 44.1 million to 58.5 million by 2030, a 31.9 percent increase. Britain’s population will rise the most, from about 2.9 million to about 5.6 million, or about 93 percent, nearly double. The population in France will rise from about 4.7 million to about 6.9 million, some 46 percent. France will also have the highest number of Muslims as a percentage of the population, at 10.3.
Between 1990 and 2010, the population of Muslims in Europe increased almost 50 percent.
The number of Muslims in Europe has grown from 29.6 million in 1990 to 44.1 million in 2010. Europe’s Muslim population is projected to exceed 58 million by 2030. Muslims today account for about 6% of Europe’s total population, up from 4.1% in 1990. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.
In Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourgh, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Britain the number of Muslims will increase from about 18.3 million to 29.8 million by 2030, or about 62 percent. They will be 7.1 percent of the population.
The rise is partly attributable to Muslim birth rates, as Pew explains:
One reason the Muslim population of Europe is projected to rise, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population, is because Muslims’ fertility rates are generally higher than those of non-Muslims in Europe.
Right now, a Muslim woman in Europe generally has about 2.5 children. Non-Muslim women, meaning native Europeans, have only an average of 1.5 children.
The second reason for Europe’s stunning growth in its Muslim population is uncontrolled immigration. Immigration is expected to decline during the next 20 years, but it will still be quite substantial vis-a-vis the birth rate of native Europeans.
Why Muslim Population Growth Is A Problem
The trends are worrisome not because all Muslims all terrorists, but because as Muslims increase in number they increase their political demands upon the societies in which they live. Across Europe, Western political elites are bowing to Muslims' demands on points of Sharia law.
In France, police cannot enter certain Muslim areas. Actress Brigitte Bardot has spoken out about Muslim immigration and its attendant problems, and authorities in France have repeatedly fined her for violating hate speech laws.
A court in Germany recognized the right of a Muslim husband to beat his wife because the Koran sanctions wife beating.
In England, public swimming pools are accommodating Muslim demands for swimming attire, and Muslims are demanding the imposition of Sharia law. The Archbishop of Canterbury has suggested that Sharia or Islamic law in England "seems unavoidable." Public schools there serve halal (Muslim-approved) food. Muslims protestors have disrupted homecoming parades for British soldiers returning from war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mohammed has now surpassed Jack and Oliver as the most popular name in Britain.
A Dutch jurist has declared that if a majority of Muslims could vote for Sharia law and impose it on the country, then that was the price of democracy:
It must be possible for Muslim groups to come to power via democratic means. Every citizen may argue why the law should be changed, as long as he sticks to the law. It is a sure certainty for me: If two thirds of all Netherlanders tomorrow would want to introduce sharia, then this possibility must exist. Could you block this legally? It would also be a scandal to say "this isn’t allowed!" The majority counts. That is the essence of democracy.
Problem is, Sharia law and the Koran are incompatible with democratic procedures, which means that democracy would end once a large enough Muslim population voted for Sharia. So Dutch democracy, this jurist says, must be permitted to kill itself for the sake of principle.
This raises the question of how many other Western leaders view their laws and constitutions as suicide pacts, and whether, in the end, Western political society can survive its commitment to open borders for the sake of diversity.
Photo: The Kaaba, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, is the center of Islam.